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Question regarding example in 10.2 Regression with ARIMA errors using fable #6

Answered by robjhyndman
MMJansen asked this question in Q&A
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The .resid column is the same as the .innov column in this example, because no transformation has been used.

To see the effect of the ARIMA errors, you need to compare against the regression residuals.

library(fpp3)
fit <- us_change |>
    model(ARIMA(Consumption ~ Income))
residuals(fit, type = "regression") |>
    ACF(.resid, lag_max = 36) |>
    autoplot()

Created on 2025-01-05 with reprex v2.1.1

These have clear autocorrelation, which is what is being handled by the ARIMA part of the model.

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@MMJansen
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fpp3 Forecasting: Principles and Practice 3rd edition
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