From 0c9a0a0fde7505528ed1778253d2f720f81dcb4e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Nikhil Woodruff <35577657+nikhilwoodruff@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:03:13 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 1/9] Add blog post starter
---
.../autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md | 22 +++++++++++++++++++
src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx | 10 +++++++++
2 files changed, 32 insertions(+)
create mode 100644 src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
diff --git a/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md b/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..f6c6a0bf2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
@@ -0,0 +1,22 @@
+Today, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt will deliver the annual [Autumn Statement](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/what-is-the-autumn-statement/), widely expected to include policy reforms to both taxes and benefits. Yesterday evening, the Times [reported](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-living-wage-rise-jeremy-hunt-autumn-statement-j9f0pssxw) that these reforms will specifically include:
+
+* A 1p cut to the main rates of National Insurance
+* A 6.7% increase in non-State Pension benefit payment levels
+* An 8.5% increase in the State Pension payment level
+
+Previous reports have suggested alternative reforms to be under consideration:
+
+* A 1p cut to the basic rate of Income Tax by [the Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/aafea716-30d5-4518-98fe-169f6995173e)
+* A less-than-inflation increase in payment levels by [Christians against Poverty](https://capuk.org/news-and-blog/what-will-be-in-the-autumn-statement), [among others](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/15/jeremy-hunt-urged-not-to-use-sharp-fall-in-inflation-to-squeeze-benefits)
+* Cuts to Stamp Duty and Inheritance tax by [The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/autumn-statement-2023-predictions-jeremy-hunt-budget-tax-cuts-03sms6x82)
+
+In this post, we'll delve into PolicyEngine's budgetary, distributional and poverty impacts for these proposed tax and benefit modifications, examining them both as standalone measures and as a combined reform.
+
+
+## Tax cuts
+
+PolicyEngine estimates the reform outlined in the Times report, lowering the main Class 1 and Class 4 National Insurance rates by 1p, would cost £5.1 billion in the first year. The bottom decile sees an average gain of £3, while the fifth decile and the top decile see higher average gains of £150 and £501 respectively.
+
+This reform benefits 65% of the population[^1]. Higher-income households are more likely to gain disposable income: around 90% of the top three deciles benefit, compared to around 30% of the bottom three.
+
+[^1]: By 'benefits', we mean that the individual's household's disposable income increases as a result of the reform. For example, children not in work benefit from the reform if their parents' disposable income increases.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx b/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx
index ab94a11ba..926ae744e 100644
--- a/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx
+++ b/src/redesign/data/Posts.jsx
@@ -705,6 +705,16 @@ let posts = [
image: "citizens-economic-council.png",
authors: ["nikhil-woodruff"],
},
+ {
+ title: "Autumn Statement 2023 pre-briefing",
+ description:
+ "PolicyEngine estimates the impact of reported proposed reforms to National Insurance.",
+ date: "2023-11-21 22:00:00",
+ filename: "autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md",
+ tags: ["uk", "policy", "featured"],
+ image: "citizens-economic-council.png",
+ authors: ["nikhil-woodruff"],
+ }
].sort((a, b) => (a.date < b.date ? 1 : -1));
for (let post of posts) {
From 7983bb438ba45d68708676644c7f5902e275d558 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Nikhil Woodruff <35577657+nikhilwoodruff@users.noreply.github.com>
Date: Wed, 22 Nov 2023 00:52:47 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 2/9] Add progress
---
.../autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md | 28 +++++++++++++++++--
src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx | 17 +++++++++--
2 files changed, 40 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
diff --git a/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md b/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
index f6c6a0bf2..06761b6f4 100644
--- a/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
+++ b/src/posts/autumn-statement-2023-pre-briefing.md
@@ -12,11 +12,35 @@ Previous reports have suggested alternative reforms to be under consideration:
In this post, we'll delve into PolicyEngine's budgetary, distributional and poverty impacts for these proposed tax and benefit modifications, examining them both as standalone measures and as a combined reform.
-
## Tax cuts
-PolicyEngine estimates the reform outlined in the Times report, lowering the main Class 1 and Class 4 National Insurance rates by 1p, would cost £5.1 billion in the first year. The bottom decile sees an average gain of £3, while the fifth decile and the top decile see higher average gains of £150 and £501 respectively.
+PolicyEngine estimates the reform outlined in the Times report, lowering the main Class 1 and Class 4 National Insurance rates by 1p, would cost £5.1 billion in the first year. The bottom decile sees an average gain of £3, while the fifth decile and the top decile see higher average gains of £150 and £501 respectively. Explore the full results on PolicyEngine [here](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.decileRelativeImpact&reform=37170®ion=uk&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1).
+
+
This reform benefits 65% of the population[^1]. Higher-income households are more likely to gain disposable income: around 90% of the top three deciles benefit, compared to around 30% of the bottom three.
+
+
+
+The reform has an ambiguous effect on inequality: while the income Gini rises by 0.2%, the top 1% share of income falls by 0.1%. Absolute, before-housing-costs falls very slightly, with the headcount lowered by around 60,000.
+
+## Benefit increases
+
+The increases to benefits reported by the Times follow the separate uprating norms:
+
+* The State Pension is uprated by the triple lock, which guarantees that the payment level increases by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%.
+* Non-State Pension benefits are uprated by the September-to-September Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation.
+
+We estimate these increases combined would cost [£7.2bn](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37191®ion=uk&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1) and [£9.6bn](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.netIncome&reform=37181®ion=uk&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1) in the first year respectively- a combined cost of [£16.7bn](https://policyengine.org/uk/policy?focus=policyOutput.detailedBudgetaryImpact&reform=37185®ion=uk&timePeriod=2023&baseline=1). These costs are against the baseline of not uprating benefits at all.
+
+These reforms benefit the lowest income deciles the most: the bottom decile sees an average gain of over 5%, while the top decile sees a gain of 0.3%.
+
+
+
+The reforms ...
+
+* To-do: poverty+inequality, section on combined impact, conclusion with caveats about baselines.
+
+
[^1]: By 'benefits', we mean that the individual's household's disposable income increases as a result of the reform. For example, children not in work benefit from the reform if their parents' disposable income increases.
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx b/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx
index 4bd645801..5cb910f94 100644
--- a/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx
+++ b/src/redesign/components/BlogPage.jsx
@@ -577,19 +577,30 @@ function BlogContent({ markdown, backgroundColor }) {
+
+ {alt}
+
