Kelly Betting Criterion for dynamic bet sizes. #674
NikitaMGrimm
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Would it be possible to automatically calculate the optimal bet size for a bet using the Kelly criterion? (and a risk factor/Kelly fraction)
For example:
Odds shown: O1: 50%, O2: 50% -> 1:1 odds. (real payout)
SMART: 100 people bet on O1, 50 people bet on O2 -> 75%, 25%
-> We should bet on O1. But with what bet size?
Kelly criterion using shown-odds for the payout and SMART percentages for the 'real' probabilities:
prob. win (p) = 75%
shown payout (win odds) (b) = 1
-> fraction to bet (f) = p - (1-p)/b = 75% - (25%)/1 = 50%
Lets say the Kelly fraction / risk factor is 0.2: The recommended bet in this scenario is 0.2*50% = 10% of your balance.
Other example:
Shown: O1: 25%, O2: 75% -> 3:1 odds. (real payout)
SMART: 34 on O1, 40 on O2 -> 46%, 54%
fraction to bet on O1: 46% - (54%)/3 = 28%
With Kelly fraction of 0.2: 5.6% of your balance should be bet.
This can of course use a more sophisticated algorithm for the calculation of the more 'real' probabilities (in this case SMART). The bet size can also be a fraction of the above percentage added onto the set percentage, etc...
Just an idea. I feel like its a big restriction to let the bet be static as the betting amount is one of the most important things to change if your goal is to optimize the growth of your networth.
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