Calculate noise to adjust default initial value

[fsmosca]

Flag to implement: --calculate-noise

An example situation, when user uses the flag

--calculate-noise --games-per-trial 250 --base-time-sec 5 --inc-time-sec 0.10 ...

the tuner will run 4 matches of 250 games each match with the same engine using the same default parameter values. After the 4 matches, calculate the average result.

Since we are conducting matches with the same engine and param, the expected result is 0.5. If the average result is above 0.5 say 0.52 then the noise is 0.52 - 0.5 or 0.02. The default initial value is 0.5, this would be adjusted to 0.52 to take into account the estimated noise from the system that the tuner is run and from the tuning conditions that were defined such as time control and number of games.

In this case during trials, if result of a match is 0.51 the tuner will not accept that as the best value because 0.51 is lower than 0.52. However if match result is 0.53, then the best value is no longer 0.52 but 0.53 and the default param is no longer the best. The best param will be updated to the param that was suggested by the optimizer that resulted in a match result of 0.53.