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Assembly of Demand Profile

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mlamherr edited this page Sep 4, 2018 · 9 revisions

Approximations

In increasing level of accuracy, the ways to allocate demand data collected from the EIA-930 data include

  1. By region: sum all the BA demand entirely within the region, plus arbitrary allocation of BAs to a region. This is what was done by B Xia during his internship project. The problem, as can be seen here (L:\Renewable Energy\EnergyGridModeling\Data\demand data for WECC\WECC_demand_2016\compareWAcounts_fractionBPAT.pdf), is that the allocation of BPAT completely to Oregon, when BPAT is about 50:50 (by area) between Oregon and Washington, results in >50% underestimation of WA demand and likely >50% overestimation of OR demand.
  2. By region: sum all the BA demand entirely within the region + fraction of BA demand in region. The region fraction can be calculated by area or by population fractions. Yixing suggested population data to avoid situations of large states with low population, e.g., Montana, where using area may overestimate demand.
  3. By BA: assign the BA demand to all the buses whose lat-longs are inside the BA's service footprint. This is easier done if buses are defined by BA coverage instead of the current 16 state-based regions. But this allocation will be able to capture the area climate differences which cause different regions to have vastly different demands (e.g., higher heating rates in Eastern WA than Western WA).

Methods (1) and (2) have additional errors coming from over- or under-estimation for states where there is large difference in climate; for example, in WA, Western WA has milder winters and cooler summers than Eastern WA; so using a state total demand can overestimate demand in Western WA. Method (3)'s errors will mainly come from BA demand count reporting errors.

US Census Population documentation (8/30/2018): https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology/2010-2017/2017-natstcopr-meth.pdf

US States Population downloaded on 8/30/2018 from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2017/demo/popest/state-total.html

California 2016 population downloaded on 8/30/2018 from http://www.dof.ca.gov/Reports/Demographic_Reports/American_Community_Survey/index.html#ACS2016x5

El Paso, Texas 2016 population was obtained on 8/30/2018 from https://www.opendatanetwork.com/entity/1600000US4824000/El_Paso_TX/demographics.population.count?year=2016

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