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# Script to calculate OHC RMSE for all runs (since we didn't calculate it | ||
# automatically for most runs) | ||
# Author: Peter Scully | ||
# Date: 7/1/24 | ||
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### Constants and Imports ### | ||
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# Importing libraries | ||
library(hector) | ||
library(ggplot2) | ||
theme_set(theme_bw(base_size = 20)) | ||
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# Setting up file paths | ||
COMP_DATA_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "comparison_data") | ||
SCRIPTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "scripts") | ||
RESULTS_DIR <- file.path(here::here(), "results") | ||
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OHC_PATH <- file.path(COMP_DATA_DIR, "OHC_ensemble_Kuhlbrodt_etal_2022.csv") | ||
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INI_FILE <- system.file("input/hector_ssp245.ini", package = "hector") | ||
PARAMS <- c(BETA(), Q10_RH(), DIFFUSIVITY(), ECS(), AERO_SCALE()) | ||
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OUTPUT <- file.path(RESULTS_DIR, "OHC_RMSE.txt") | ||
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source(file.path(SCRIPTS_DIR, "major_functions.R")) | ||
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### Getting observational data ### | ||
obs_data <- get_ohc_data(OHC_PATH, include_unc = T) | ||
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### Running Hector ### | ||
# Default (and initial smoothing) Results [Exp. 1-4] | ||
default_data <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = NULL, | ||
vals = NULL, | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
default_data$scenario <- "Hector - Default" | ||
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# NMSE 3-Parameter Results [Exp.5-9] | ||
exp5_9A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.268, 2.64, 2.2, 3, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp5_9A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE" | ||
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exp5B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0, 1.5, 2.6, 3, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp5B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE \nBig Box" | ||
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exp6B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0, 1.58, 2.6, 3, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp6B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE, Smoothing (k = 3) \nBig Box" | ||
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exp8B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0, 1.95, 2.6, 3, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp8B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE, Smoothing (k = 10) \nBig Box" | ||
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exp9B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.028, 1.76, 2.6, 3, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp9B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box" | ||
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# Optimizing S, Alpha [Exp. 10-11] | ||
exp10A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.268, 1.95, 2.6, 3.97, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp10A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nTuning S" | ||
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exp10B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.006, 1, 2.6, 3.16, 1), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp10B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box, Tuning S" | ||
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exp11A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.57, 1.76, 2.38, 2.96, 0.492), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp11A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nTuning S, Alpha" | ||
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exp11B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.502, 0.99, 2, 2.88, 0.5), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp11B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc \nBig Box, Tuning S, Alpha" | ||
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# Optimizing for OHC & Further Refinements [Exp. 12-16] | ||
exp12 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.65, 1.76, 1.04, 2.33, 0.438), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp12$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha" | ||
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exp13 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.53, 2.31, 1.04, 2.83, 1.405), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp13$scenario <- "Hector - MVSSE, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha" | ||
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exp14A <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.732, 1.76, 1.04, 3, 0.613), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp14A$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning Alpha" | ||
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exp14B <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.904, 0.88, 0.806, 3, 0.46), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp14B$scenario <- "Hector - NMSE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nBig Box, Tuning Alpha" | ||
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exp15 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.57, 2.49, 1.06, 3.14, 1.08), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp15$scenario <- "Hector - MAE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha" | ||
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exp16 <- run_hector(ini_file = INI_FILE, | ||
params = PARAMS, | ||
vals = c(0.59, 1.76, 1.04, 2.17, 0.411), | ||
yrs = 1750:2014, | ||
vars = HEAT_FLUX()) | ||
exp16$scenario <- "Hector - NMAE w/ unc, incl. OHC \nTuning S, Alpha" | ||
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# Calculating OHC RMSE | ||
all_exp <- list(default_data, | ||
exp5_9A, exp5B, exp6B, exp8B, exp9B, # NMSEs | ||
exp10A, exp10B, # Add S | ||
exp11A, exp11B, # Add alpha | ||
exp12, # Add OHC, Mat Diff | ||
exp13, # Try MVSSE | ||
exp14A, exp14B, # Try remove S | ||
exp15, exp16) # Try MAE/NMAE | ||
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# TODO: clean up this output sorry | ||
sapply(all_exp, get_var_mse_unc, | ||
obs_data = obs_data, var = "OHC", yrs = 1957:2014, mse_fn = mse_unc) | ||
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