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Comparing model runs with different ECS values #24

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merged 3 commits into from
Jun 24, 2024
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ptrscll
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@ptrscll ptrscll commented Jun 19, 2024

I tried changing ECS values within the IPCC range of 2-5. At the moment, I have a spaghetti plot with all the temperature and CO2 results, but I also plan on making a plot showing the difference between the new runs and the run with the baseline ECS of 3.

@ptrscll ptrscll linked an issue Jun 19, 2024 that may be closed by this pull request
@kdorheim
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image

@ptrscll, what sort of conclusions can you draw from this plot? Would it be helpful to include S as one of the calibration parameters?

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ptrscll commented Jun 20, 2024

I think this plot indicates that changing ECS can have a pretty substantial effect on temperature predictions, which makes me think that it would be helpful to try including it as a calibration parameter.

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Let's give it a try!

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@ptrscll, could you do a similar analysis of changing ocean heat diffusivity over a somewhat large range? While keeping S fixed at 3?

@ptrscll ptrscll merged commit 6a201e4 into main Jun 24, 2024
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@ptrscll ptrscll deleted the ECS_sensitivity branch July 11, 2024 20:18
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ECS Sensitivity Testing
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