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Try mvsse #34

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merged 8 commits into from
Jul 3, 2024
Merged

Try mvsse #34

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7636759
Reran old experiments
ptrscll Jun 24, 2024
3f1cd10
Plotted just alpha run
ptrscll Jun 24, 2024
e2011d1
re-checked OHC values
ptrscll Jun 24, 2024
ca13527
Integrated OHC measuring into rest of workflow
ptrscll Jun 25, 2024
be355ee
Tried optimizing for OHC
ptrscll Jun 25, 2024
78689fe
Added basic unit tests for mvsse
ptrscll Jun 25, 2024
a684a46
Added and tested final MVSSE functions
ptrscll Jun 25, 2024
1ae22d4
Tried optimizing for MVSSE
ptrscll Jun 25, 2024
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43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/01_initial_experiment.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.528253602365166
q10_rh 1.76
diff 2.3843958670058

Objective Function Value: 2.3
Counts: 15
Counts: 15
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 4.57
T MSE: 0.0357
RMSE: 2.14

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.51
TCR: 1.77

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.731
Ocean Heat Content Change: 472
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.87
Methane ERF: 0.54

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.73
ssp119 2041 2060 0.895
ssp119 2081 2100 0.717
ssp126 2021 2040 0.745
ssp126 2041 2060 1.08
ssp126 2081 2100 1.1
ssp245 2021 2040 0.75
ssp245 2041 2060 1.29
ssp245 2081 2100 1.98
ssp370 2021 2040 0.761
ssp370 2041 2060 1.43
ssp370 2081 2100 2.94
ssp585 2021 2040 0.877
ssp585 2041 2060 1.74
ssp585 2081 2100 3.79
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/02_smooth_temps_3yr.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.528263071532207
q10_rh 1.76
diff 2.37997014792955

Objective Function Value: 2.3
Counts: 6
Counts: 6
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 4.57
T MSE: 0.0357
RMSE: 2.14

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.51
TCR: 1.77

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.731
Ocean Heat Content Change: 471
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.87
Methane ERF: 0.54

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.73
ssp119 2041 2060 0.895
ssp119 2081 2100 0.717
ssp126 2021 2040 0.745
ssp126 2041 2060 1.08
ssp126 2081 2100 1.1
ssp245 2021 2040 0.75
ssp245 2041 2060 1.29
ssp245 2081 2100 1.98
ssp370 2021 2040 0.761
ssp370 2041 2060 1.43
ssp370 2081 2100 2.94
ssp585 2021 2040 0.877
ssp585 2041 2060 1.74
ssp585 2081 2100 3.79
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/03_smooth_temps_5yr.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.528262971929169
q10_rh 1.76
diff 2.37997009562544

Objective Function Value: 2.3
Counts: 6
Counts: 6
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 4.57
T MSE: 0.0357
RMSE: 2.14

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.51
TCR: 1.77

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.731
Ocean Heat Content Change: 471
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.87
Methane ERF: 0.54

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.73
ssp119 2041 2060 0.895
ssp119 2081 2100 0.717
ssp126 2021 2040 0.745
ssp126 2041 2060 1.08
ssp126 2081 2100 1.1
ssp245 2021 2040 0.75
ssp245 2041 2060 1.29
ssp245 2081 2100 1.98
ssp370 2021 2040 0.761
ssp370 2041 2060 1.43
ssp370 2081 2100 2.94
ssp585 2021 2040 0.877
ssp585 2041 2060 1.74
ssp585 2081 2100 3.79
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/04_smooth_temps_10yr.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.5282627568606
q10_rh 1.76
diff 2.37996967686392

Objective Function Value: 2.3
Counts: 6
Counts: 6
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 4.57
T MSE: 0.0357
RMSE: 2.14

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.51
TCR: 1.77

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.731
Ocean Heat Content Change: 471
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 3.87
Methane ERF: 0.54

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.73
ssp119 2041 2060 0.895
ssp119 2081 2100 0.717
ssp126 2021 2040 0.745
ssp126 2041 2060 1.08
ssp126 2081 2100 1.1
ssp245 2021 2040 0.75
ssp245 2041 2060 1.29
ssp245 2081 2100 1.98
ssp370 2021 2040 0.761
ssp370 2041 2060 1.43
ssp370 2081 2100 2.94
ssp585 2021 2040 0.877
ssp585 2041 2060 1.74
ssp585 2081 2100 3.79
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/05_NMSE.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
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parameters values
beta 0.268
q10_rh 2.64
diff 2.2

Objective Function Value: 0.000565
Counts: 11
Counts: 11
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: NORM OF PROJECTED GRADIENT <= PGTOL

CO2 MSE: 173
T MSE: 0.0211
RMSE: 13.2

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.72
TCR: 1.79

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.925
Ocean Heat Content Change: 557
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 4.38
Methane ERF: 0.544

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.857
ssp119 2041 2060 1.14
ssp119 2081 2100 1.11
ssp126 2021 2040 0.871
ssp126 2041 2060 1.32
ssp126 2081 2100 1.53
ssp245 2021 2040 0.875
ssp245 2041 2060 1.53
ssp245 2081 2100 2.48
ssp370 2021 2040 0.885
ssp370 2041 2060 1.67
ssp370 2081 2100 3.42
ssp585 2021 2040 1
ssp585 2041 2060 1.99
ssp585 2081 2100 4.29
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/05_NMSE_big_box.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0
q10_rh 1.49599440204924
diff 2.6

Objective Function Value: 0.000406
Counts: 23
Counts: 23
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 918
T MSE: 0.0143
RMSE: 30.3

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.69
TCR: 1.74

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 1.1
Ocean Heat Content Change: 684
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 4.88
Methane ERF: 0.549

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.885
ssp119 2041 2060 1.19
ssp119 2081 2100 1.17
ssp126 2021 2040 0.897
ssp126 2041 2060 1.38
ssp126 2081 2100 1.61
ssp245 2021 2040 0.9
ssp245 2041 2060 1.57
ssp245 2081 2100 2.53
ssp370 2021 2040 0.909
ssp370 2041 2060 1.7
ssp370 2081 2100 3.42
ssp585 2021 2040 1.02
ssp585 2041 2060 2
ssp585 2081 2100 4.24
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/06_smooth_temps_nmse_3yr.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.268
q10_rh 2.64
diff 2.2

Objective Function Value: 0.00046
Counts: 11
Counts: 11
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: NORM OF PROJECTED GRADIENT <= PGTOL

CO2 MSE: 173
T MSE: 0.0211
RMSE: 13.2

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.72
TCR: 1.79

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.925
Ocean Heat Content Change: 557
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 4.38
Methane ERF: 0.544

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.857
ssp119 2041 2060 1.14
ssp119 2081 2100 1.11
ssp126 2021 2040 0.871
ssp126 2041 2060 1.32
ssp126 2081 2100 1.53
ssp245 2021 2040 0.875
ssp245 2041 2060 1.53
ssp245 2081 2100 2.48
ssp370 2021 2040 0.885
ssp370 2041 2060 1.67
ssp370 2081 2100 3.42
ssp585 2021 2040 1
ssp585 2041 2060 1.99
ssp585 2081 2100 4.29
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/06_smooth_temps_nmse_3yr_big_box.txt
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Open in desktop
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0
q10_rh 1.57851439895725
diff 2.6

Objective Function Value: 0.000289
Counts: 19
Counts: 19
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: REL_REDUCTION_OF_F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

CO2 MSE: 937
T MSE: 0.0143
RMSE: 30.6

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.7
TCR: 1.74

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 1.1
Ocean Heat Content Change: 687
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 4.89
Methane ERF: 0.549

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.889
ssp119 2041 2060 1.2
ssp119 2081 2100 1.2
ssp126 2021 2040 0.902
ssp126 2041 2060 1.38
ssp126 2081 2100 1.63
ssp245 2021 2040 0.905
ssp245 2041 2060 1.58
ssp245 2081 2100 2.56
ssp370 2021 2040 0.913
ssp370 2041 2060 1.71
ssp370 2081 2100 3.44
ssp585 2021 2040 1.03
ssp585 2041 2060 2.01
ssp585 2081 2100 4.26
43 changes: 43 additions & 0 deletions results/08_smooth_temps_nmse_10yr.txt
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
parameters values
beta 0.268
q10_rh 2.64
diff 2.2

Objective Function Value: 0.000411
Counts: 11
Counts: 11
Convergence: 0
Messages: CONVERGENCE: NORM OF PROJECTED GRADIENT <= PGTOL

CO2 MSE: 173
T MSE: 0.0211
RMSE: 13.2

***Key Metrics***
TCRE: 1.72
TCR: 1.79

***Historical Warming and ERF***
GSAT Warming: 0.925
Ocean Heat Content Change: 557
Total Aerosol ERF: -1.24
WMGHG ERF: 4.38
Methane ERF: 0.544

***Future Warming***
scenario start end GSAT
ssp119 2021 2040 0.857
ssp119 2041 2060 1.14
ssp119 2081 2100 1.11
ssp126 2021 2040 0.871
ssp126 2041 2060 1.32
ssp126 2081 2100 1.53
ssp245 2021 2040 0.875
ssp245 2041 2060 1.53
ssp245 2081 2100 2.48
ssp370 2021 2040 0.885
ssp370 2041 2060 1.67
ssp370 2081 2100 3.42
ssp585 2021 2040 1
ssp585 2041 2060 1.99
ssp585 2081 2100 4.29
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