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Update to documentation for release
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added figure, updated data descriptions and refs, and updated package overview.
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heathermirletz committed Jul 7, 2021
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50 changes: 38 additions & 12 deletions docs/sphinx/source/data.rst
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Expand Up @@ -197,22 +197,48 @@ IRENA Solar Energy Data (https://www.irena.org/solar, and https://irena.org/Stat

Installed Capacity - Projections
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Projection installation data for 2019 through 2050, Installations projected to increase 8.9% compound annual growth rate through 2050
(IRENA, "Future of Solar PV 2019," IRENA, 2019. Accessed: Apr. 02, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Nov/IRENA_Future_of_Solar_PV_2019.pdf.)
OR
NREL Std Scenarios 2019 mid case
Projection installation options through 2050 include:
1. An 8.9% compound annual growth rate through 2050 (IRENA, "Future of Solar PV 2019," IRENA, 2019. Accessed: Apr. 02, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Nov/IRENA_Future_of_Solar_PV_2019.pdf.)
2. Electrification Futures 2021 US projection data for reference case and High electrification case.

More installation projection options will be available in future.

Module Baselines
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Degradation rate (in percentage power loss per year)
(D. C. Jordan, S. R. Kurtz, K. VanSant, and J. Newmiller, "Compendium of photovoltaic degradation rates," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 978–989, 2016, doi: 10.1002/pip.2744.)
Degradation rate (in percentage power loss per year):
*D. C. Jordan, S. R. Kurtz, K. VanSant, and J. Newmiller, "Compendium of photovoltaic degradation rates," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 978–989, 2016, doi: 10.1002/pip.2744.*

Failure probability data, i.e. T50 and T90, in years:
*D. C. Jordan, B. Marion, C. Deline, T. Barnes, and M. Bolinger, "PV field reliability status - Analysis of 100 000 solar systems," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol. n/a, no. n/a, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.1002/pip.3262.*

Project lifetimes:
*M. Bolinger, J. Seel, and D. Robson, “Utility-Scale Solar 2019,” LBNL, Dec. 2019. Accessed: Aug. 13, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/lbnl_utility_scale_solar_2019_edition_final.pdf*

Failure probability data, i.e. T50 and T90, in years
(D. C. Jordan, B. Marion, C. Deline, T. Barnes, and M. Bolinger, "PV field reliability status - Analysis of 100 000 solar systems," Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, vol. n/a, no. n/a, Feb. 2020, doi: 10.1002/pip.3262.)

Material Baselines
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Glass thickness data
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
The ITRPV Results Reports for 2010 and forward provided glass thickness data, and where report data was missing, reasonable assumptions or interpolations were made. See jupyter journal "Glass per M2 Calculations" for each year's calculations, and SupportingMaterial Glass_FrontThickness_ITRPV and Module_Conformation_ITRPV files for extracted data ("ITRPV - VDMA." https://itrpv.vdma.org/).
Calculations for material baseline values can be found in Jupyter Journals "PV_ICE\docs\tutorials\baseline development documentation". Some of the primary references utilized for these calculations are listed here.

Glass
^^^^^^^
*thickness data: ITRPV 2010-2021
*module package (g-g vs g-b): ITRPV 2010-2021
Silicon
^^^^^^^^^
*wafer thickness, cell size, kerf loss: ITRPV 2010-2021
*mono-Si vs mc-Si marketshares: *M. Bolinger, J. Seel, and D. Robson, “Utility-Scale Solar 2019,” LBNL, Dec. 2019. Accessed: Aug. 13, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/lbnl_utility_scale_solar_2019_edition_final.pdf* and *G. Barbose and N. Darghouth, “Tracking the Sun 2019,” LBNL, Oct. 2019. Accessed: Aug. 13, 2020. [Online]. Available: https://emp.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/tracking_the_sun_2019_report.pdf*

Silver
^^^^^^^
*silver per cell: ITRPV 2010-2021
Copper
^^^^^^^^
*number of busbars: ITRPV 2010-2021
*busbar dimensions: *“Standard PV Ribbon Datasheet.” Ulbrich Solar Technologies. Accessed: Jan. 14, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.pvribbon.com/wp-content/uploads/Datasheets/SPR_Datasheet.pdf*

Aluminum Frames
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
*framed vs frameless: ITRPV 2010-2021
*module size: *J. R. Peeters, D. Altamirano, W. Dewulf, and J. R. Duflou, “Forecasting the composition of emerging waste streams with sensitivity analysis: A case study for photovoltaic (PV) panels in Flanders,” Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 120, pp. 14–26, May 2017, doi: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2017.01.001.*
23 changes: 13 additions & 10 deletions docs/sphinx/source/package_overview.rst
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Expand Up @@ -5,12 +5,14 @@ Package Overview

The PV ICE tool considers the following material flow:

.. image:: ../../images_wiki/MFC-Diagram.PNG
.. image:: ../../images_wiki/PV_ICE_Diagram-Legend.PNG
:width: 450

The starting point is the installed capacity. From there, the percentage of probability of each arrow determines the amount of material on each stage. For example, if 20% gets Recycled, that means the other 80% goes to landfill.
PV ICE system boundaries include “Virgin Extraction & Refinement,” “PV Manufacturing,” “Use Phase,” and “End-of-Life,”. Mass flows (arrows) are affected by process efficiencies (circles) and decision points (hexagons) are either module or material properties (background color). All materials are tracked on a mass-per-module-area basis, allowing conversion between module and material. The module and its materials can follow a linear flow (double arrows, Figure 2) from extraction to EoL, or follow circular pathways (teal arrows). Process efficiencies or yields (circles) dictate extra material demands and wastes generated in a process step (ex: kerf loss of silicon). Decision points (hexagons) are influenced by stakeholders or policy decisions and regulations, dictating the fraction of modules or materials which follow a specific pathway (ex: fraction of modules recycled at EoL).

Input to the calculator is an excel file with the appropriate columns to establish all the paths in the diagram. Examples for baseline input files for the US and World past and projected values are available in the ``PV_ICE/baselines`` folder.
Calculations are based around annual installed capacity. From there, the percentage of probability of each arrow determines the amount of material on each stage. For example, if 20% gets Recycled, that means the other 80% goes to landfill.

Input to the calculator are csvs with the columns corresponding to the paths in the diagram. Baseline input files of module and materials for the US and World 1995-2050 are available in the ``PV_ICE/baselines`` folder.

For contrast, a completely linear economy would look like:

Expand All @@ -21,10 +23,7 @@ For contrast, a completely linear economy would look like:
Framework and Definitions
----------------------------
PV Life Stages/Phases:
We are setting the boundaries of the PV Life stages at mining/extraction and processing of the virgin materials, which are all represented as a single stage ("Extraction and Material Prep"). Subsequent stages are
"Manufacturing", where the processed materials are made into a module;
"Lifetime/UsePhase"; where the module is installed and used to generate electricity; and
"End of Life" (EOL), where the module has either failed or degraded beyond use. The "R's" modify the linear life stages of a PV module.
Mining/extraction and processing of the virgin materials are represented as a single efficiency ("Extraction and Material Prep") to capture the order of magnitude of material extraction. Subsequent stages are "Manufacturing", where the processed materials are made into a module; "Lifetime/UsePhase"; where the module is installed and used to generate electricity; and "End of Life" (EOL), where the module has either failed or degraded beyond use. The "R's" modify the linear life stages of a PV module.

EOL
~~~~~
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -61,9 +60,13 @@ Refurbish
^^^^^^^^^^
Module is at EOL (through failure or degradation), and the module is demounted and taken offsite to resolve defects or problems.

Reuse
^^^^^^^
Module is at EOL (through degradation) and is demounted and removed from the field. Offsite, the module is assessed/tested/recertified and found to be in sufficient working condition to be reinstalled at the same site or on a new site. Could be as a result of a solar PV farm "Repowering".
Resell Reuse
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Module is at EOL (through degradation) and is demounted and removed from the field. Offsite, the module is assessed/tested/recertified and found to be in sufficient working condition to be sold and reinstalled at a new site. Could be as a result of a solar PV farm "Repowering".

Merchant Tail
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Module is at EOL (through degradation) but is left to continue generating power in the field until a later date.

Recycle
^^^^^^^^
Expand Down

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