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avehtari committed Nov 13, 2023
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13 changes: 7 additions & 6 deletions Aalto2023.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -199,7 +199,7 @@ the book chapters relaed to the next lecture and assignment.
| 7\. Hierarchical models and exchangeability | [BDA3 Chapter 5](BDA3_notes.html#ch5) | [2023 Lecture 7.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=c1014690-1133-4232-ad0f-b0a400ba228d), <br> [2023 Lecture 7.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=196c3a91-3ba2-4469-ab15-b0a400ca6074),<br> [2022 Project info](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8f0158f9-6abf-4ada-bdb7-af3800d139de), <br>[Slides 7](slides/BDA_lecture_7.pdf) | [Assignment 7](assignments/assignment7.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week8")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week8")` |
| 8\. Model checking & cross-validation | [BDA3 Chapter 6](BDA3_notes.html#ch6), [BDA3 Chapter 7](BDA3_notes.html#ch7), [Visualization in Bayesian workflow](https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12378), [Practical Bayesian cross-validation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04544) | [2023 Lecture 8.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=785ece8a-16ef-4f64-8134-b0ab00cbd1e8), <br> [2023 Lecture 8.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=456afda7-0e6d-4903-b0df-b0ab00da8f1e), <br>[Slides 8a](slides/BDA_lecture_8a.pdf),[Slides 8b](slides/BDA_lecture_8b.pdf) | Start project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week9")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week9")` |
| 9\. Model comparison, selection, and hypothesis testing | [BDA3 Chapter 7 (not 7.2 and 7.3)](BDA3_notes.html#ch7), <br> [Practical Bayesian cross-validation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04544) | [2023 Lecture 9.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a4961b5a-7e42-4603-8aaf-b0b200ca6295), <br> [2023 Lecture 9.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a4796c79-eab2-436e-b55f-b0b200dac7ce), <br>[Slides 9](slides/BDA_lecture_9.pdf) | [Assignment 8](assignments/assignment8.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week10")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week10")` |
| 10\. Decision analysis | [BDA3 Chapter 9](BDA3_notes.html#ch9) | [2022 Lecture 10.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a22aab9c-953c-4ea8-b6ec-af4d00c9fe58), <br>[Slides 10](slides/BDA_lecture_10.pdf) | [Assignment 9](assignments/assignment9.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week11")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week11")` |
| 10\. Decision analysis | [BDA3 Chapter 9](BDA3_notes.html#ch9) | [2022 Lecture 10.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a22aab9c-953c-4ea8-b6ec-af4d00c9fe58), <br>[Slides 10a](slides/BDA_lecture_10a.pdf), [Slides 10b](slides/BDA_lecture_10b.pdf) | [Assignment 9](assignments/assignment9.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week11")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week11")` |
| 11\. Normal approximation, frequency properties | [BDA3 Chapter 4](BDA3_notes.html#ch4) | [2022 Lecture 11.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8cde4d40-1b77-4110-af98-af5400ca38b5), <br> [2022 Lecture 11.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=d83f6553-1516-475f-8898-af5400dd7b50), <br>[Slides 11](slides/BDA_lecture_11.pdf) | Project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week12")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week12")` |
| 12\. Extended topics | Optional: BDA3 Chapters [8](BDA_notes.hml#ch8), [14-18](BDA_notes.hml#ch14), and 21 | Optional: <br> [Old Lecture 12.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=e998b5dd-bf8e-42da-9f7c-ab1700ca2702), <br> [Old Lecture 12.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=c43c862a-a5a4-45da-9b27-ab1700e12012), <br>[Slides 12](slides/BDA_lecture_12.pdf) | Project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week13")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week13")` |
| 13\. Project evaluation | | | | Project presentations: `r params$project_presentations` | Evaluation week |
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -526,16 +526,17 @@ variable selection with projection predictive variable selection.
`r sdate("Lecture date", "Week10", offset = 4)` 10-12.
- Start reading Chapter 9, see instructions below.

### 10) BDA3 Ch 9, decision analysis
### 10) BDA3 Ch 9, decision analysis + BDA3 Ch 4 Laplace approximation and asymptotics

Decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9.
Decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9. + Laplace approximation and asymptotics. BDA Ch 4.

- Read Chapter 9
- Read Chapter 9 and 4
- see [reading instructions for Chapter 9](BDA3_notes.html#ch9)
- see [reading instructions for Chapter 4](BDA3_notes.html#ch4)
- **Lecture `r paste(sday("Lecture date", "Week11"), sdate("Lecture date", "Week11"))` 14:15-16, hall T2, CS building**
- [Slides 10](slides/BDA_lecture_10.pdf)
- [Slides 10a](slides/BDA_lecture_10a.pdf), [Slides 10b](slides/BDA_lecture_10b.pdf)
- Videos: [2022 Lecture 10.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a22aab9c-953c-4ea8-b6ec-af4d00c9fe58)
on decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9.
on decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9, and [2022 Lecture 11.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8cde4d40-1b77-4110-af98-af5400ca38b5) on normal approximation (Laplace approximation), large sample theory, and counter examples, BDA3 Ch 4.
- Make and submit [Assignment 9](assignments/assignment9.html).
**`r sday("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week11")` `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week11")` 23:59**
- Review Assignment 8 done by your peers before 23:59
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24 changes: 15 additions & 9 deletions Aalto2023.html
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Expand Up @@ -1612,7 +1612,7 @@

<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Bayesian Data Analysis course - Aalto
2023</h1>
<h4 class="date">Page updated: 2023-11-07</h4>
<h4 class="date">Page updated: 2023-11-13</h4>

</div>

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1914,8 +1914,8 @@ <h3>Schedule overview</h3>
<td>10. Decision analysis</td>
<td align="left"><a href="BDA3_notes.html#ch9">BDA3 Chapter 9</a></td>
<td><a href="https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a22aab9c-953c-4ea8-b6ec-af4d00c9fe58">2022
Lecture 10.1</a>, <br><a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10.pdf">Slides
10</a></td>
Lecture 10.1</a>, <br><a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10a.pdf">Slides
10a</a>, <a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10b.pdf">Slides 10b</a></td>
<td><a href="assignments/assignment9.html">Assignment 9</a></td>
<td>13.11.</td>
<td>19.11.</td>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -2330,21 +2330,27 @@ <h3>9) BDA3 Ch 7, extra material, model comparison and selection</h3>
<li>Start reading Chapter 9, see instructions below.</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div id="bda3-ch-9-decision-analysis" class="section level3">
<h3>10) BDA3 Ch 9, decision analysis</h3>
<p>Decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9.</p>
<div id="bda3-ch-9-decision-analysis-bda3-ch-4-laplace-approximation-and-asymptotics" class="section level3">
<h3>10) BDA3 Ch 9, decision analysis + BDA3 Ch 4 Laplace approximation
and asymptotics</h3>
<p>Decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9. + Laplace approximation and
asymptotics. BDA Ch 4.</p>
<ul>
<li>Read Chapter 9
<li>Read Chapter 9 and 4
<ul>
<li>see <a href="BDA3_notes.html#ch9">reading instructions for Chapter
9</a></li>
<li>see <a href="BDA3_notes.html#ch4">reading instructions for Chapter
4</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li><strong>Lecture Monday 13.11. 14:15-16, hall T2, CS
building</strong>
<ul>
<li><a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10.pdf">Slides 10</a></li>
<li><a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10a.pdf">Slides 10a</a>, <a href="slides/BDA_lecture_10b.pdf">Slides 10b</a></li>
<li>Videos: <a href="https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=a22aab9c-953c-4ea8-b6ec-af4d00c9fe58">2022
Lecture 10.1</a> on decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9.</li>
Lecture 10.1</a> on decision analysis. BDA3 Ch 9, and <a href="https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8cde4d40-1b77-4110-af98-af5400ca38b5">2022
Lecture 11.1</a> on normal approximation (Laplace approximation), large
sample theory, and counter examples, BDA3 Ch 4.</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Make and submit <a href="assignments/assignment9.html">Assignment
9</a>. <strong>Sunday 19.11. 23:59</strong>
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