Update household heat pump awareness over time

k8s/job.jsonnet

@@ -40,80 +40,15 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
 
 [
   // scenarios
-  job('03g-%s-extended-bus-policy-very-high-awareness' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
+  job('01a-%s-max-policy-extended-bus' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--intervention',
     'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.7',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
-    '0.0682',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
-    '0.182',
-  ]),
-  job('03h-%s-extended-bus-policy-extremely-awareness' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
     '--intervention',
-    'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.9',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
-    '0.0682',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
-    '0.182',
-  ]),
-  job('03i-%s-ext-bus-policy-high-awareness-unlimited-installers' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
-    '--intervention',
-    'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.5',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
-    '0.0682',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
-    '0.182',
-    '--heat-pump-installer-count',
-    '10000000000',
-  ]),
-  job('03j-%s-ext-bus-high-awareness-unltd-installers-new-builds' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
-    '--intervention',
-    'extended_boiler_upgrade_scheme',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.5',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
-    '0.0682',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
-    '0.182',
-    '--heat-pump-installer-count',
-    '10000000000',
-    '--include-new-builds',
-  ]),
-  job('04d-%s-max-policy-wo-new-builds' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
-    '--intervention',
-    'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
-    '--intervention',
-    'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
-    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',
-    '2035-01-01',
-    '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-announce-date',
-    '2025-01-01',
-    '--heat-pump-awareness',
-    '0.5',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
-    '0.0682',
-    '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
-    '0.182',
-  ]),
-  job('04e-%s-max-policy-all-suitable' % std.extVar('SHORT_SHA'), [
-    '--intervention',
-    'boiler_upgrade_scheme',
+    'heat_pump_campaign',
+    '--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness',
+    '0.8',
+    '--heat-pump-awareness-campaign-date',
+    '2028-01-01',
     '--intervention',
     'gas_oil_boiler_ban',
     '--gas-oil-boiler-ban-date',
@@ -122,12 +57,11 @@ local job(name, args_excl_output) = {
     '2025-01-01',
     '--heat-pump-awareness',
     '0.5',
-    '--air-source-heat-pump-price-discount-date',
-    '2026-01-01:0.3',
     '--price-gbp-per-kwh-gas',
     '0.0682',
     '--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity',
     '0.182',
-    '--all-agents-heat-pump-suitable',
+    '--heat-pump-installer-count',
+    '10000000000'
   ]),
 ]

simulation/__main__.py

@@ -178,6 +178,18 @@ def check_string_is_isoformat_datetime(string) -> str:
     parser.add_argument("--price-gbp-per-kwh-electricity", type=float, default=0.245)
     parser.add_argument("--price-gbp-per-kwh-oil", type=float, default=0.068)
 
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--heat-pump-awareness-campaign-date",
+        default=datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
+        type=convert_to_datetime,
+    )
+
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--campaign-target-heat-pump-awareness",
+        default=0.8,
+        type=float_between_0_and_1,
+    )
+
     return parser.parse_args(args)
 
 
@@ -187,6 +199,11 @@ def validate_args(args):
             f"Boiler ban announcement date must be on or before ban date, got gas_oil_boiler_ban_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_date}, gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date:{args.gas_oil_boiler_ban_announce_date}"
         )
 
+    if args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness < args.heat_pump_awareness:
+        raise ValueError(
+            f"Campaign target awareness must be greater than or equal to the population heat pump awareness, got campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness:{args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness}, heat_pump_awareness:{args.heat_pump_awareness}"
+        )
+
 
 if __name__ == "__main__":
 
@@ -226,6 +243,8 @@ def validate_args(args):
             args.heat_pump_installer_count,
             args.heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
             ENGLAND_WALES_ANNUAL_NEW_BUILDS if args.include_new_builds else None,
+            args.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+            args.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
         )
 
         with smart_open.open(args.history_file, "w") as file:

simulation/agents.py

@@ -440,8 +440,12 @@ def get_heating_system_options(
                     [HeatingSystem.BOILER_GAS, HeatingSystem.BOILER_OIL]
                 )
 
-        if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_announced:
-            # if a gas/boiler ban is announced, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
+        is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_in_place = (
+            InterventionType.GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN in model.interventions
+            and model.current_datetime >= model.gas_oil_boiler_ban_datetime
+        )
+        if not is_gas_oil_boiler_ban_in_place:
+            # if a gas/boiler ban is in place, we assume all households are aware of heat pumps
             if not self.is_heat_pump_aware:
                 heating_system_options -= HEAT_PUMPS
 
@@ -611,8 +615,44 @@ def compute_heat_pump_capacity_kw(self, heat_pump_type: HeatingSystem) -> int:
             )
         )
 
+    def proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
+        self, model
+    ) -> float:
+        heat_pump_awareness_at_previous_timestep = (
+            model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+            - (
+                model.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware_at_current_timestep
+                / model.household_count
+            )
+        )
+        return (
+            model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+            - heat_pump_awareness_at_previous_timestep
+        ) / (1 - heat_pump_awareness_at_previous_timestep)
+
+    def update_heat_pump_awareness(self, model) -> None:
+        if (
+            InterventionType.HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN in model.interventions
+            and model.current_datetime >= model.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
+            and model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+            < model.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+            and not self.is_heat_pump_aware
+        ):
+            proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware = self.proba_of_becoming_heat_pump_aware_required_to_reach_campaign_target(
+                model
+            )
+            self.is_heat_pump_aware = true_with_probability(
+                proba_to_become_heat_pump_aware
+            )
+            if self.is_heat_pump_aware:
+                model.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware += 1
+                model.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware_at_current_timestep += (
+                    1
+                )
+
     def make_decisions(self, model):
 
+        self.update_heat_pump_awareness(model)
         self.update_heating_status(model)
         self.evaluate_renovation(model)
 

simulation/collectors.py

@@ -277,6 +277,10 @@ def model_heat_pump_installations_at_current_step(model) -> int:
     return model.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step
 
 
+def model_heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep(model) -> float:
+    return model.heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep
+
+
 def is_first_timestep(model: "DomesticHeatingABM") -> bool:
     return model.current_datetime == model.start_datetime + model.step_interval
 
@@ -303,7 +307,6 @@ def get_agent_collectors(
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_discount_rate),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_renovation_budget),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_is_heat_pump_suitable),
-        collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(household_is_heat_pump_aware),
         household_heating_system,
         household_heating_system_previous,
         household_heating_functioning,
@@ -340,6 +343,7 @@ def get_agent_collectors(
         household_heating_system_costs_insulation_heat_pump_air_source,
         household_heating_system_costs_insulation_heat_pump_ground_source,
         household_boiler_upgrade_grant_used,
+        household_is_heat_pump_aware,
     ]
 
 
@@ -355,4 +359,5 @@ def get_model_collectors(
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_gas),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_electricity),
         collect_when(model, is_first_timestep)(model_price_gbp_per_kwh_oil),
+        model_heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep,
     ]

simulation/constants.py

@@ -206,6 +206,7 @@ class InterventionType(enum.Enum):
     BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 1
     GAS_OIL_BOILER_BAN = 2
     EXTENDED_BOILER_UPGRADE_SCHEME = 3
+    HEAT_PUMP_CAMPAIGN = 4
 
 
 # Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/datasets/householdsbytypeofhouseholdandfamilyregionsofenglandandukconstituentcountries

simulation/model.py

@@ -46,6 +46,10 @@ def __init__(
         heat_pump_installer_count: int,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
         annual_new_builds: Optional[Dict[int, int]],
+        heat_pump_awareness: float,
+        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness: List[bool],
     ):
         self.start_datetime = start_datetime
         self.step_interval = step_interval
@@ -74,6 +78,13 @@ def __init__(
         )
         self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
         self.annual_new_builds = annual_new_builds
+        self.heat_pump_awareness = heat_pump_awareness
+        self.campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness = campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness
+        self.heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date = heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date
+
+        self.population_heat_pump_awareness = population_heat_pump_awareness
+        self.num_households_heat_pump_aware = sum(population_heat_pump_awareness)
+        self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware = 0
 
         super().__init__(UnorderedSpace())
 
@@ -193,21 +204,29 @@ def boiler_upgrade_scheme_spend_gbp(self) -> int:
             ]
         )
 
+    @property
+    def heat_pump_awareness_at_timestep(self) -> float:
+        return (
+            self.num_households_heat_pump_aware
+            + self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware
+        ) / self.household_count
+
     def increment_timestep(self):
         self.current_datetime += self.step_interval
         self.boiler_upgrade_scheme_cumulative_spend_gbp += (
             self.boiler_upgrade_scheme_spend_gbp
         )
         self.heat_pump_installations_at_current_step = 0
+        self.num_households_switching_to_heat_pump_aware_at_current_timestep = 0
 
 
 def create_household_agents(
     household_population: pd.DataFrame,
-    heat_pump_awareness: float,
+    population_heat_pump_awareness: List[bool],
     simulation_start_datetime: datetime.datetime,
     all_agents_heat_pump_suitable: bool,
 ) -> Iterator[Household]:
-    for household in household_population.itertuples():
+    for i, household in enumerate(household_population.itertuples()):
         yield Household(
             id=household.id,
             location=household.location,
@@ -236,7 +255,7 @@ def create_household_agents(
             is_heat_pump_suitable_archetype=True
             if all_agents_heat_pump_suitable
             else household.is_heat_pump_suitable_archetype,
-            is_heat_pump_aware=random.random() < heat_pump_awareness,
+            is_heat_pump_aware=population_heat_pump_awareness[i],
         )
 
 
@@ -263,8 +282,14 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
     heat_pump_installer_count: int,
     heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate: float,
     annual_new_builds: Dict[int, int],
+    campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness: float,
+    heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date: datetime.datetime,
 ):
 
+    population_heat_pump_awareness = [
+        random.random() < heat_pump_awareness for _ in range(len(household_population))
+    ]
+
     model = DomesticHeatingABM(
         start_datetime=start_datetime,
         step_interval=step_interval,
@@ -282,11 +307,15 @@ def create_and_run_simulation(
         heat_pump_installer_count=heat_pump_installer_count,
         heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate=heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate,
         annual_new_builds=annual_new_builds,
+        heat_pump_awareness=heat_pump_awareness,
+        campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness=campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness,
+        heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date=heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness=population_heat_pump_awareness,
     )
 
     households = create_household_agents(
         household_population,
-        heat_pump_awareness,
+        population_heat_pump_awareness,
         model.start_datetime,
         all_agents_heat_pump_suitable,
     )

simulation/tests/common.py

@@ -57,6 +57,10 @@ def model_factory(**model_attributes):
         "heat_pump_installer_count": 2_800,
         "heat_pump_installer_annual_growth_rate": 0,
         "annual_new_builds": None,
+        "heat_pump_awareness": 0.5,
+        "campaign_target_heat_pump_awareness": 0.8,
+        "heat_pump_awareness_campaign_date": datetime.datetime(2028, 1, 1),
+        "population_heat_pump_awareness": [],
     }
 
     return DomesticHeatingABM(**{**default_values, **model_attributes})