Predicting the NBA All-Stars and NBA Awards with Machine Learning

The goal of this analysis is to predict the NBA All-Stars and NBA Awards for a specific year, by applying various machine learning algorithms on player performance data and All-Star selections / award voting data from other years. NBA Awards considered in this analysis are Most Valuable Player (MVP), Rookie of the Year (ROY), Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) and Sixth Man of the Year (SMOY).

Data

NBA data from 2000-2020 from basketball-reference.com have been saved as csv-files in the data directory using the scraper functions in NBAanalysissetup.py. Data from other years can be obtained by using Basketball_Reference_scraper.py. The following data are used in the analysis, where each file corresponds to a single season:

• NBA_totals_[season].csv: Regular player performance statistics
• NBA_advanced_[season].csv: Advanced player performance statistics
• NBA_teammisc_[season].csv: Team performance statistics
• NBA_rookies_[season].csv: Rookie performance statistics
• NBA_allstars_[season].csv: All-Star game statistics
• NBA_MVP_[season].csv: MVP voting results
• NBA_ROY_[season].csv: ROY voting results
• NBA_DPOY_[season].csv: DPOY voting results
• NBA_SMOY_[season].csv: SMOY voting results

Analysis

The analysis is based on the NumPy and Pandas data analysis packages and the Scikit-learn machine learning package for Python. The XGBoost algorithm and the Keras-TensorFlow deep learning libraries are tested as well. Matplotlib, Seaborn and Bokeh are used for visualization.

The NBA All-Stars and NBA Awards analyses are described in more detail in the following:

• NBA All-Stars analysis README
• NBA Awards analysis README

Predictions for 2020

At the time of writing (October 20, 2020), the NBA All-Stars for 2020 have been selected and the NBA Awards for 2020 have been awarded. Predictions for the NBA All-Stars and NBA Awards for 2020 are listed below.

NBA All-Stars 2020:

The predicted NBA All-Stars for 2020 based on 2010-2020 data, ordered by the median predicted calibrated probability score over all selected models and compared to the actual NBA All-Star selection in 2020:

• Western Conference:

  • Deserved All-Stars: Kawhi Leonard (LAC), Anthony Davis (LAL), James Harden (HOU), LeBron James (LAL), Luka Dončić (DAL), Russell Westbrook (HOU), Damian Lillard (POR), Devin Booker (PHO), Donovan Mitchell (UTA), Brandon Ingram (NOP)
  • Questionable All-Stars: Nikola Jokić (DEN), Chris Paul (OKC), Rudy Gobert (UTA)
  • Snubbed non-All-Stars: Paul George (LAC), Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)

• Eastern Conference:

  • Deserved All-Stars: Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL), Joel Embiid (PHI), Jayson Tatum (BOS), Trae Young (ATL), Pascal Siakam (TOR), Jimmy Butler (MIA), Kyle Lowry (TOR), Kemba Walker (BOS), Bam Adebayo (MIA), Khris Middleton (MIL)
  • Questionable All-Stars: Ben Simmons (PHI), Domantas Sabonis (IND)
  • Snubbed non-All-Stars: Bradley Beal (WAS), Zach LaVine (CHI)

NBA Awards 2020:

The top-3 predicted NBA MVP, ROY, DPOY and SMOY candidates based on 2000-2020 data are listed below in order of the median predicted Award Voting Share rank over all selected models. The award winners are shown in bold face.

• NBA Most Valuable Player 2020:

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
  2. James Harden (HOU)
  3. LeBron James (LAL)

• NBA Rookie of the Year 2020:

  1. Ja Morant (MEM)
  2. RJ Barrett (NYK)
  3. Kendrick Nunn (MIA)

• NBA Defensive Player of the Year 2020:

  1. Rudy Gobert (UTA)
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
  3. Anthony Davis (LAL)

• NBA Sixth Man of the Year 2020:

  1. Lou Williams (LAC)
  2. Dennis Schroder (OKC)
  3. Montrezl Harrell (LAC)