Release/2.2.5 🎉

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -1,5 +1,8 @@
 # Changelog
 
+# 2.2.5 (11/7/2024)
+- fix: hot fixes for the extrapolation step + using the presidential margins to infer a ticket splitting estimate in each house / senate race [#140](https://github.com/washingtonpost/elex-live-model/pull/140)
+
 # 2.2.4 (11/5/2024)
 - fix: truncation can fail catastrophically when % reporting is too low [#138](https://github.com/washingtonpost/elex-live-model/pull/138)
 

setup.py

@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@
     LONG_DESCRIPTION = f.read()
 
 # The full version, including alpha/beta/rc tags
-RELEASE = "2.2.4"
+RELEASE = "2.2.5"
 # The short X.Y version
 VERSION = ".".join(RELEASE.split(".")[:2])
 

src/elexmodel/client.py

@@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
 from collections import defaultdict
+from io import StringIO
 
 import numpy as np
 import pandas as pd
@@ -339,6 +340,31 @@ def get_estimates(
                 versioned_data_handler = None
         else:
             versioned_data_handler = None
+
+        if model_parameters.get("correct_from_presidential", False):
+            s3_client = s3.S3CsvUtil(TARGET_BUCKET)
+            baseline_path = f"{S3_FILE_PATH}/{self.election_id}/data/P/data_county.csv"
+            results_path = f"{S3_FILE_PATH}/{self.election_id}/results/P/county/current.csv"
+            predictions_path = f"{S3_FILE_PATH}/{self.election_id}/predictions/P/county/unit_data/current.csv"
+            pres_baseline = pd.read_csv(StringIO(s3_client.get(baseline_path)), dtype={"geographic_unit_fips": str})
+            pres_baseline["baseline_normalized_margin"] = (pres_baseline.baseline_dem - pres_baseline.baseline_gop) / (
+                pres_baseline.baseline_dem + pres_baseline.baseline_gop
+            )
+            pres_results = pd.read_csv(StringIO(s3_client.get(results_path)), dtype={"geographic_unit_fips": str})
+            pres_predictions = pd.read_csv(
+                StringIO(s3_client.get(predictions_path)), dtype={"geographic_unit_fips": str}
+            )
+            pres_predictions = pres_predictions.merge(
+                pres_results[["geographic_unit_fips", "results_weights"]], on="geographic_unit_fips", how="left"
+            )
+            pres_predictions = pres_predictions.merge(
+                pres_baseline[["geographic_unit_fips", "baseline_normalized_margin"]],
+                on="geographic_unit_fips",
+                how="left",
+            )
+        else:
+            pres_predictions = None
+
         LOG.info("Running model for %s", self.election_id)
         LOG.info(
             "Model parameters: \n prediction intervals: %s, percent reporting threshold: %s, \
@@ -359,7 +385,9 @@ def get_estimates(
             self.model = GaussianElectionModel(model_settings=model_settings)
         elif pi_method == "bootstrap":
             self.model = BootstrapElectionModel(
-                model_settings=model_settings, versioned_data_handler=versioned_data_handler
+                model_settings=model_settings,
+                versioned_data_handler=versioned_data_handler,
+                pres_predictions=pres_predictions,
             )
 
         minimum_reporting_units_max = 0

src/elexmodel/handlers/data/VersionedData.py

@@ -117,7 +117,11 @@ def compute_estimated_margin(df):
             # because the AP adjusted its model after the fact. We correct for this here.
             # we recompute the percent_expected_vote using the last reported value as the max
             perc_expected_vote_corr = np.divide(
-                results_turnout, results_turnout[-1], out=np.zeros_like(results_turnout), where=results_turnout[-1] != 0
+                results_turnout,
+                results_turnout[-1],
+                out=np.zeros_like(results_turnout),
+                where=results_turnout[-1] != 0,
+                casting="unsafe",
             )
 
             # check if perc_expected_vote_corr is monotone increasing (if not, give up and don't try to estimate a margin)
@@ -190,7 +194,7 @@ def compute_estimated_margin(df):
 
             est_margins = observed_norm_margin * observed_vote + observed_batch_margin * (percs - observed_vote)
             est_margins = np.divide(
-                est_margins, percs, where=percs != 0, out=np.zeros_like(est_margins)
+                est_margins, percs, where=percs != 0, out=np.zeros_like(est_margins), casting="unsafe"
             )  # Handle div-by-zero
 
             # Return a DataFrame with the multi-index (geographic_unit_fips, perc)

src/elexmodel/models/BootstrapElectionModel.py

@@ -52,7 +52,7 @@ class BootstrapElectionModel(BaseElectionModel):
     and the epsilons are contest (state/district) level random effects.
     """
 
-    def __init__(self, model_settings={}, versioned_data_handler=None):
+    def __init__(self, model_settings={}, versioned_data_handler=None, pres_predictions=None):
         super().__init__(model_settings)
         self.B = model_settings.get("B", 500)  # number of bootstrap samples
         self.strata = model_settings.get("strata", ["county_classification"])  # columns to stratify the data by
@@ -61,6 +61,7 @@ def __init__(self, model_settings={}, versioned_data_handler=None):
             "agg_model_hard_threshold", True
         )  # use sigmoid or hard thresold when calculating agg model
         self.district_election = model_settings.get("district_election", False)
+
         self.lambda_ = model_settings.get("lambda_", None)  # regularization parameter for OLS
 
         # save versioned data for later use
@@ -70,6 +71,10 @@ def __init__(self, model_settings={}, versioned_data_handler=None):
         self.extrapolate_std_method = model_settings.get("extrapolate_std_method", "std")
         self.max_dist_to_observed = model_settings.get("max_dist_to_observed", 5)
 
+        # save presidenial predictions for later use
+        self.pres_predictions = pres_predictions
+        self.correct_from_presidential = model_settings.get("correct_from_presidential", False)
+
         # upper and lower bounds for the quantile regression which define the strata distributions
         # these make sure that we can control the worst cases for the distributions in case we
         # haven't seen enough data ayet
@@ -1283,6 +1288,49 @@ def compute_bootstrap_errors(
                 extrap_filter
             ]
 
+        if self.correct_from_presidential:
+            nonreporting_units["geographic_unit_fips_p"] = nonreporting_units.geographic_unit_fips.apply(
+                lambda x: x.split("_")[1]
+            )
+            nonreporting_units = nonreporting_units.merge(
+                self.pres_predictions,
+                left_on="geographic_unit_fips_p",
+                right_on="geographic_unit_fips",
+                how="left",
+                suffixes=("", "_pres"),
+            )
+
+            # adjust results_normalized_margin_pres to account for split counties
+
+            nonreporting_units["margin_adj"] = (
+                nonreporting_units.baseline_normalized_margin - nonreporting_units.baseline_normalized_margin_pres
+            )
+
+            nonreporting_units["results_normalized_margin_pres"] = (
+                nonreporting_units.results_margin_pres / nonreporting_units.results_weights_pres
+                + nonreporting_units.margin_adj
+            )
+            nonreporting_units["pred_normalized_margin_pres"] = (
+                nonreporting_units.pred_margin / nonreporting_units.pred_turnout + nonreporting_units.margin_adj
+            )
+
+            nonreporting_units["pred_normalized_margin"] = np.mean(
+                y_test_pred_B.clip(min=y_partial_reporting_lower, max=y_partial_reporting_upper), axis=1
+            )
+
+            nonreporting_units["margin_gap"] = (
+                nonreporting_units.results_normalized_margin - nonreporting_units.results_normalized_margin_pres
+            )
+
+            nonreporting_units["pred_normalized_margin_new"] = (
+                nonreporting_units.pred_normalized_margin_pres + nonreporting_units.margin_gap
+            )
+            adjustment = (
+                nonreporting_units["pred_normalized_margin_new"].values
+                - nonreporting_units["pred_normalized_margin"].values
+            )
+            y_test_pred_B[~np.isnan(adjustment)] += adjustment[~np.isnan(adjustment)].reshape(-1, 1)
+
         y_test_pred_B = y_test_pred_B.clip(min=y_partial_reporting_lower, max=y_partial_reporting_upper)
 
         # \tilde{y_i}^{b} * \tilde{z_i}^{b}