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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails_eclipse

25 Oct 21:40
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.4.4
608d6e1
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails_eclipse

Calibration v1.4.4

A 1.6 million member prior and 841 member posterior are implemented. This version uses ECLIPSE emissions rather than RCMIP. ERFari distributions are changed to bring them closer in line with the intent of AR6 WG1 Ch6. ERFaci prior is made slightly wider and non-uniform. Contrails are excluded from the calibration since few IAM scenarios provide detailed enough information to assess their future forcing (some kind of aviation activity indicator or proxy such as emissions from the sector would be needed).

  • 1.6 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior is a trapezoidal distribution with vertices at (-2.2, -1.6, -0.4, +0.2) W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with best estimates and uncertainties scaled to create a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0 W/m2.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).
  • Contrails are excluded from the calibration

Constraint sets:

AR6-updated_no-contrails_eclipse (v1.4.4)

  • emissions from 1990 of methane and SLCFs are from ECLIPSE and not RCMIP
  • The solar_trend is discontinued and solar forcing is now sampled with only solar_amplitude
  • Volcanic forcing efficacy is set to 1.0 rather than 0.6

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic_2lm (v1.4.3)

As v1.4.2 except:

  • Two layer energy balance model
  • A 421 member posterior is used, since the overall ensemble performance is poorer using a two layer model.

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic_2lm (v1.4.3)

As v1.4.2 except:

  • Two layer energy balance model
  • A 421 member posterior is used, since the overall ensemble performance is poorer using a two layer model.

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic (v1.4.2)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • A 1000 member posterior is used, not 841. This is to match up ensemble members with the Chim/Aubry stochastic volcanic futures.
  • The solar_trend is discontinued and solar forcing is now sampled with only solar_amplitude
  • Volcanic forcing efficacy is set to 1.0 rather than 0.6

all-2022 (v1.4.1)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • Emissions are from several observational and proxy datasets updated to 2022 (Global Carbon Project, PRIMAP-Hist, Global Fire Emissions Database, Community Emissions Data System), and harmonized to run scenarios post-2022.

AR6-updated_no-contrails (v1.4.0)

  • 841-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic_2lm

19 Oct 08:55
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.4.3
f73230e
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Calibration v1.4.3

A 1.6 million member prior and 421 member posterior are implemented. This version uses a two-layer energy balance model rather than a three-layer model. ERFari distributions are changed to bring them closer in line with the intent of AR6 WG1 Ch6. ERFaci prior is made slightly wider and non-uniform. Contrails are excluded from the calibration since few IAM scenarios provide detailed enough information to assess their future forcing (some kind of aviation activity indicator or proxy such as emissions from the sector would be needed).

  • 1.6 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior is a trapezoidal distribution with vertices at (-2.2, -1.6, -0.4, +0.2) W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with best estimates and uncertainties scaled to create a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0 W/m2.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).
  • Contrails are excluded from the calibration

Constraint sets:

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic_2lm (v1.4.3)

As v1.4.2 except:

  • Two layer energy balance model
  • A 421 member posterior is used, since the overall ensemble performance is poorer using a two layer model.

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic (v1.4.2)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • A 1000 member posterior is used, not 841. This is to match up ensemble members with the Chim/Aubry stochastic volcanic futures.
  • The solar_trend is discontinued and solar forcing is now sampled with only solar_amplitude
  • Volcanic forcing efficacy is set to 1.0 rather than 0.6

all-2022 (v1.4.1)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • Emissions are from several observational and proxy datasets updated to 2022 (Global Carbon Project, PRIMAP-Hist, Global Fire Emissions Database, Community Emissions Data System), and harmonized to run scenarios post-2022.

AR6-updated_no-contrails (v1.4.0)

  • 841-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic

01 Aug 07:58
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.4.2
7b602e5
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic

Calibration v1.4.2

A 1.6 million member prior and 1000 member posterior are implemented. ERFari distributions are changed to bring them closer in line with the intent of AR6 WG1 Ch6. ERFaci prior is made slightly wider and non-uniform. Contrails are excluded from the calibration since few IAM scenarios provide detailed enough information to assess their future forcing (some kind of aviation activity indicator or proxy such as emissions from the sector would be needed).

  • 1.6 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior is a trapezoidal distribution with vertices at (-2.2, -1.6, -0.4, +0.2) W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with best estimates and uncertainties scaled to create a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0 W/m2.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).
  • Contrails are excluded from the calibration

Constraint sets:

AR6-updated_no-contrails_aubry-volcanic (v1.4.2)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • A 1000 member posterior is used, not 841. This is to match up ensemble members with the Chim/Aubry stochastic volcanic futures.
  • The solar_trend is discontinued and solar forcing is now sampled with only solar_amplitude
  • Volcanic forcing efficacy is set to 1.0 rather than 0.6

all-2022 (v1.4.1)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • Emissions are from several observational and proxy datasets updated to 2022 (Global Carbon Project, PRIMAP-Hist, Global Fire Emissions Database, Community Emissions Data System), and harmonized to run scenarios post-2022.

AR6-updated_no-contrails (v1.4.0)

  • 841-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails

25 Jan 10:19
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.4.1
5a31144
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.4, AR6-updated_no-contrails

Calibration v1.4.1

A slightly bigger prior and slightly smaller posterior are implemented. ERFari distributions are changed to bring them closer in line with the intent of AR6 WG1 Ch6. ERFaci prior is made slightly wider and non-uniform. Contrails are excluded from the calibration since few IAM scenarios provide detailed enough information to assess their future forcing (some kind of aviation activity indicator or proxy such as emissions from the sector would be needed).

  • 1.6 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior is a trapezoidal distribution with vertices at (-2.2, -1.6, -0.4, +0.2) W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with best estimates and uncertainties scaled to create a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0 W/m2.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).
  • Contrails are excluded from the calibration

Constraint sets:

all-2022 (v1.4.1)

As v1.4.0 except:

  • Emissions are from several observational and proxy datasets updated to 2022 (Global Carbon Project, PRIMAP-Hist, Global Fire Emissions Database, Community Emissions Data System), and harmonized to run scenarios post-2022.

AR6-updated_no-contrails (v1.4.0)

  • 841-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.3, AR6-updated

27 Nov 08:50
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.3.1
9f58f56
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Calibration v1.3.1

This is the same as v1.2.0 with a fix for the BC on snow forcing distribution that was previously incorrect. fair has been updated to v2.1.3.

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal. Black carbon on snow was wrong in v1.2.0 and fixed here.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).

Constraint sets:

AR6-updated (v1.3.1)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints.

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.3, calibration 1.3, AR6-updated_no-contrails_unfix-nox

24 Nov 15:10
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.3.0
8acee6a
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Calibration v1.3.0

This is the same as v1.2.0 with a fix for the BC on snow forcing distribution that was previously incorrect. fair has been updated to v2.1.3.

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal. Black carbon on snow was wrong in v1.2.0 and fixed here.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).

Constraint sets:

AR6-updated_no-contrails_unfix-nox (v1.3.0)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints.
  • NOx emissions use the original erroneous RCMIP definition, since this calibration is designed to be used for the AR6 database.
  • Contrails are excluded from historical and future runs and calibrations performed without them, again as they are not included in AR6 WG3 scenarios.

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.1, calibration 1.2, AR6_updated

02 Oct 12:33
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.2.0
a416ec8
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Calibration v1.2.0

Along with fixing a few minor things, the biggest two changes are (1) the constraints are updated to much more recent history (2022 where available) and (2) future warming from SSPs has been dropped as a constraint, typically making projected uncertainties a little wider than IPCC (though medians are still quite close).

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • NOx emissions are updated from RCMIP to fix a unit conversion issue, where biomass burning emissions from GFED are in units of NO and everything else (from CEDS) is in NO2. FaIR uses NO2 units consistently. In RCMIP v5.1.0 (Nicholls and Lewis 2021), the conversion was not done. When using this calibration for future scenarios, it is important that this is carefully considered.
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).

Constraint sets:

AR6_updated (v1.2.0)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints.

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.0, calibration 1.1, GCP 2022 CO2 emissions

16 Mar 13:52
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.1.1
a738c68
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Calibration v1.1.1

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (see Taylor et al. 2007; Zelinka et al., 2014). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b), with the code now brought inside the pipeline.
  • NOx emissions are updated from RCMIP to fix a unit conversion issue, where biomass burning emissions from GFED are in units of NO and everything else (from CEDS) is in NO2. FaIR uses NO2 units consistently. In RCMIP v5.1.0 (Nicholls and Lewis 2021), the conversion was not done. When using this calibration for future scenarios, it is important that this is carefully considered.
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6.

Constraint sets:

GCP_2022 (v1.1.1)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • CO2 FFI and AFOLU emissions are from Global Carbon Project (Friedlingstein et al. 2022), up to and including 2022 which is an estimate.
  • Non-CO2 Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6)
  • Temperature from AR6 WG1 (1850-2020, mean of 4 datasets), constrained using ssp245 projections beyond 2014.
  • ssp245 projections for 2081-2100.
  • Ocean heat content from AR6 WG1 (1971-2018), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.16K, then 6-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • land use forcing re-calibrated to maintain AR6 best estimate and range.

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.0, calibration 1.1, AR6 updated constraint set

03 Mar 08:42
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.1.0
f6933b6
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fair-2.1.0, calibration 1.1, AR6 updated constraint set

Calibration v1.1.0

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (see Taylor et al. 2007; Zelinka et al., 2014). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b), with the code now brought inside the pipeline.
  • NOx emissions are updated from RCMIP to fix a unit conversion issue, where biomass burning emissions from GFED are in units of NO and everything else (from CEDS) is in NO2. FaIR uses NO2 units consistently. In RCMIP v5.1.0 (Nicholls and Lewis 2021), the conversion was not done. When using this calibration for future scenarios, it is important that this is carefully considered.
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6.

Constraint sets:

AR6_updated (v1.1.0)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above
  • Temperature from AR6 WG1 (1850-2020, mean of 4 datasets), constrained using ssp245 projections beyond 2014.
  • ssp245 projections for 2081-2100.
  • Ocean heat content from AR6 WG1 (1971-2018), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.16K, then 6-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1

References

Assets 2
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fair-2.1.0, calibration 1.0, GCP 2022 CO2 emissions w/ land use corrected

21 Jan 10:13
@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap
v1.0.2
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fair-2.1.0, calibration 1.0, GCP 2022 CO2 emissions w/ land use corrected

Calibration v1.0.2

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using calibrations from Smith et al. 2021a (developed for AR6) using 11 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with a prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same coefficeints as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6.

Constraint sets:

AR6_updated (v1.0)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6)
  • Temperature from AR6 WG1 (1850-2020, mean of 4 datasets), constrained using ssp245 projections beyond 2014.
  • ssp245 projections for 2081-2100.
  • Ocean heat content from AR6 WG1 (1971-2018), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.16K, then 6-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1

GCP_2022 (v1.0.2)

Same as v1.0, except:

  • CO2 FFI and AFOLU emissions are from Global Carbon Project (Friedlingstein et al. 2022), up to and including 2022 which is an estimate.
  • SSP CO2 emissions are harmonized, with 2021 as the harmonization year. So 2022 is the first year in which scenarios may differ.
  • land use forcing re-calibrated to maintain AR6 best estimate and range.

References

Assets 2
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