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fair-2.1.1, calibration 1.2, AR6_updated
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@chrisroadmap chrisroadmap released this 02 Oct 12:33
· 62 commits to main since this release
v1.2.0
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Calibration v1.2.0

Along with fixing a few minor things, the biggest two changes are (1) the constraints are updated to much more recent history (2022 where available) and (2) future warming from SSPs has been dropped as a constraint, typically making projected uncertainties a little wider than IPCC (though medians are still quite close).

  • 1.5 million prior ensemble
  • Climate response calibrated on 49 abrupt-4xCO2 experiments from CMIP6 and sampled using correlated kernel density estimates
  • Methane lifetime calibrated on 4 AerChemMIP experiments for 1850 and 2014 (Thornhill et al. 2021a, 2021b). Unlike other variables which are sampled around some prior uncertainty, only the best estimate historical calibration is used. The base (1750) lifetime has been fixed and consistently used across projections.
  • Carbon cycle uses the parameters from Leach et al. 2021 calibrated for FaIR 2.0.0 using 11 C4MIP models.
  • Aerosol cloud interactions depend on SO2, BC and OC, using new calibrations from 13 RFMIP and AerChemMIP models, with the APRP code fixed by Mark Zelinka (Zelinka et al. 2023). Prior of -2 to 0 W/m2.
  • Aerosol radiation interactions use prior values from AR6 Ch6, with a factor of two uncertainty for each species and a prior in the range of -0.6 to 0.0.
  • Ozone uses the same methodology as AR6 (Smith et al. 2021b).
  • NOx emissions are updated from RCMIP to fix a unit conversion issue, where biomass burning emissions from GFED are in units of NO and everything else (from CEDS) is in NO2. FaIR uses NO2 units consistently. In RCMIP v5.1.0 (Nicholls and Lewis 2021), the conversion was not done. When using this calibration for future scenarios, it is important that this is carefully considered.
  • Effective radaitive forcing uncertainty follows the distributions in AR6, with asymmetric distributions switched to skew-normal.
  • Volcanic forcing time series updated to 2022 (from IGCC).

Constraint sets:

AR6_updated (v1.2.0)

  • 1001-member posterior (deliberately chosen).
  • Emissions and concentrations from RCMIP (i.e. based on CMIP6), but with NOx updated as above. ssp245 chosen for post-2014.
  • Temperature from IGCC (Forster et al. 2023) (1850-2022, mean of 4 datasets).
  • Warming 2003-2022 relative to 1850-1900 range from IGCC.
  • CO2 concentrations constrained to IGCC estimate for 2022.
  • Ocean heat content from IGCC (1971-2020), linear.
  • two step constraining procedure used: first RMSE of less than 0.17K (up from 0.16), then 8-variable distribution fitting.
  • Aerosol ERF, ERFari and ERFaci as in AR6 WG1
  • No future warming constraints.

References

Assets 2
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